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Three housing crash calls examined—and debunked by the numbers

For the past five years, YouTube has been flooded with predictions of an imminent national housing crash—and they've all been wrong. So this week, I brought on Dion Talk and Matt the Lumberjack Landlord to revisit some of the loudest crash calls since 2020 and examine what actually happened.

Dion credits his financial freedom to one simple decision: tuning out the fear, uncertainty, and doubt—and buying when the right opportunity came. Together, we pulled the receipts on three of the most common crash predictions. We broke down the data behind each one and asked a simple question: Did the numbers ever support the claim?

Spoiler: they didn’t. From rising rates to foreclosure fears to the supposed “inventory surge,” the numbers tell a very different story.

Online theory 1: Rising rates were supposed to nuke prices

Several big channels loudly predicted that a one-point jump in mortgage rates would chop 10 percent off home values. That sounded neat on a whiteboard—until rates more than tripled off their 2021 lows and prices still marched higher.

In reality, buyers adapted: they asked for concessions, negotiated buydowns, or simply re-ran their math at 7 to 8 percent and wrote offers that still penciled. If a property cash-flows at today’s cost of capital, locking it in now beats waiting for a mythical five-handle that may never return.

Online theory 2: A foreclosure tsunami was “inevitable”

When forbearance programs wound down, pundits promised a deluge of bank-owned deals. In practice, fewer than 1% of those loans ever reached first notice of default.

Why? Owners hold record equity and sub-four-percent mortgages, they will fight to keep them. Even when hardship strikes, selling beats surrendering the keys. Investors hunting for opportunity should chase real-life motivation, which will always exist—divorce, relocation, inheritance—not an REO wave that never materialized.

Online theory 3: Shadow inventory would “flood” the market

The third scare story claimed hidden supply—“locked-in” owners, silver-tsunami retirees, Gen Z in basements—would dump listings and crush prices. While some markets are experiencing some price softness as their inventory has climbed above 2019 levels, national inventory levels remain constrained, sitting below where it was pre-pandemic.

Market clearing still hinges on local dynamics: unit mix, price band, and property condition. Tracking those numbers weekly in your own zip code beats any national headline.

Big picture: Crash prophets hawk fear because fear sells. Investors buy facts because facts build wealth. Interest rates, foreclosures, and inventory—none behaved the way the gloom crowd insisted they must. Keep it simple: define your buy box, run the numbers at today’s rates, and write offers that make sense right now. Let the clickbaiters chase views while you stack assets.

ResiClub chart of the week

Last week, ResiClub’s Lance Lambert released his latest analysis of state-level active inventory data.

More markets are climbing out of the inventory deficit that occurred during the Pandemic Housing Boom.

“At the end of May 2025, 10 states were above pre-pandemic 2019 active inventory levels: Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Idaho, Hawaii, Oregon, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, and Washington,” Lance wrote. “The District of Columbia—which we left out of this analysis—is also back above pre-pandemic 2019 active inventory levels too. Weakness in D.C. proper predates the current admin’s job cuts.”

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