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Summer housing market surprises every investor should know

July and August will be painful—but opportunity awaits

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The 3 things investors should know about the summer 2025 housing market

Let me be clear: 2025 is going to be a rough year for housing. Moreover, July and August are shaping up to be the low point—transaction volumes are weak, buyer activity is sluggish, and both existing and new home sales are struggling.

This summer is going to feel brutal, especially for real estate professionals. But here’s the thing—once we get through August, I believe we hit bottom. Come fall, the market starts to feel better. No, it won’t replace the spring selling season, but September, October, and November could surprise a lot of people with how much stronger they feel.

I recently sat down with Matt the Mortgage Guy to break down what’s happening now, what’s coming next, and what serious investors should know heading into summer 2025.

1. The bottom is coming—and it’s coming fast

Matt and I agree: July and August 2025 are likely to be the ugliest months of this cycle. Transaction volume is falling off a cliff—existing home sales, new construction, you name it. It’s painful out there.

But here’s the key: We’re almost through it. Matt is calling the bottom for the end of August. And when the turn comes, it’ll come fast. The fall market won’t match the spring season in volume—but it will feel better—especially if mortgage rates hit sub-6% before the end of the year. Buyer sentiment will shift. Momentum will return. The days of zero-offer listings are numbered.

2. These are the last months for disrespectful offers

If you’re an investor, the time to strike is now. You’ve got two months left to write lowball offers and negotiate massive seller concessions—without competition.

In Sacramento, Matt cited that even entry-level homes around $500K are averaging under two offers. And in a recent office update, 92 deals closed—with 84 of them including seller concessions. He gave an example of the type of deal that’s possible if an investor takes advantage of this slow market:

In Elk Grove, a competitive submarket near Sacramento, a buyer picked up an entry-level $600,000 home with a $15,000 seller credit. That credit was used to structure a temporary buy-down: 4.99% the first year, and 5.99% the second year. If and when rates drop to 5.5%—which is looking more realistic—this buyer can refinance and remove the buy-down, with the remaining balance rolling straight into the principal.

What does that mean? If the market does what we think it will, and homes in that neighborhood go from $600,000 to $640,000 in the next year or two, this buyer walks into $30,000 to $40,000 of upside—simply by being early, structured, and willing to move when others were hesitant. It’s not just a lower monthly payment. It’s a head start on appreciation and a smarter way to time the next rate cycle.

3. You want to negotiate before the turn, not after

The market psychology flips once sellers have even one competing offer. The leverage you hold today is temporary. And when you’re the only buyer at the table, you can get creative. But once the fall momentum hits, you’re playing in a different arena—one where sellers have more control.

Big picture: We’re heading into the final stretch of what’s been the hardest year in recent memory for real estate professionals. But for investors? This is it. Your last window before the turn. Use July and August to do the work, write the offers, and position yourself for the recovery. Fall will be better. 2026 will be stronger. But the best deals? They’re happening now.

ResiClub chart of the week:

This past week, ResiClub’s Lance Lambert broke down Zillow’s latest Market Heat Index—a model that scores the top 250 U.S. housing markets based on competitiveness indicators like price changes, inventory levels, and days on market.

According to Zillow:

  • Score of 70 or above = strong sellers market

  • Score from 55 to 69 = sellers market

  • Score from 44 to 55 = neutral market

  • Score from 28 to 44 = buyers market

  • Score of 27 or below = strong buyers market

The U.S. housing market posted a score of 55 in May 2025, putting it right on the edge of neutral. But local readings vary widely.

Among the 250 largest metro area housing markets, these five where sellers have the most power:

  1. Rochester, NY → 145 

  2. Buffalo, NY → 110

  3. Syracuse, NY 100 

  4. Charleston, WV → 99 

  5. Albany, NY → 97 

Among the 250 largest metro area housing markets, these five where buyers have the most power:

  1. Macon, GA → 23 

  2. Jackson, TN → 24 

  3. Brownsville, TX → 27 

  4. Gulfport, MS → 27 

  5. Naples, FL → 27 

This was Lance’s take on the latest data:

“Directionally, I believe Zillow has correctly identified many regional housing markets where buyers have gained the most power—particularly around the Gulf—as well as markets where sellers have maintained (relatively speaking) somewhat of a grip, including large portions of the Northeast and Midwest.

Based on my personal housing analysis, I consider Southwest Florida the weakest/softest chunk of the U.S. housing market. Not too far behind are pockets of Texas, Colorado, and Arizona markets where there’s built-up unsold spec inventory.

In my view, many West Coast markets are softer right now than Zillow’s analysis suggests—in particular the areas that have recently seen big jumps in active inventory for sale.”

ResiClub CEO Lance Lambert

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